1.

Gas turbine prices are up 195% since 2019 — not because fuel got expensive, but because data centers need so much power that developers are now buying turbines six years in advance, and the world can only build 60–70 GW of them per year. The market didn't shift from fuel economics to procurement strategy. It collapsed into it.

2.

110 GW ordered, 60–70 GW built — the gap is structural

• Global orders hit 110 GW by end-2025; global manufacturing capacity tops out at 70 GW, leaving a 40 GW annual shortfall
• Six-year lead times mean order books are sold through 2027 — developers securing equipment today won't see it until the next decade
• Aurora Tenorio, Wood Mackenzie senior analyst, calls this a "fundamental shift" from fuel-economics-driven decisions to procurement-strategy-driven project viability

3.

Prices will hit $600/kW by end-2027 — a 195% increase in eight years

• The $600/kW forecast represents a 195% jump from 2019 levels, driven by the supply-demand imbalance, not by fuel costs
• Turbines are already the largest cost driver in gas plants — 20–30% of combined cycle project costs, even higher for simple cycle
• Tenorio: "This supply constraint, compounded by six-year lead times and order books sold through 2027, has fundamentally shifted the market"

4.

Data centers are the new load — and they're doubling

• Wood Mackenzie forecasts data center electricity consumption will rise 96% between 2026 and 2031, with AI and cloud expansion as the fastest-growing source of new grid load
• SB Energy's Portsmouth Powered Land Project alone is a $33 billion, 9.2 GW natural gas facility requiring 24–30 heavy-duty gas turbines for its initial build-out
• Turbine orders are expected to peak in 2026 as developers race to secure equipment for 63 GW of gas capacity additions from 2026 to 2030

5.

Manufacturers are spending billions — and hitting a wall

• GE Vernova is investing over $160 million to raise production from ~50 large-frame turbines annually to 70–80 units by late 2026
• Siemens Energy has transitioned key facilities to 24/7 operations and announced a $1 billion US investment program; Mitsubishi Heavy Industries plans to double capacity through 2028
• Tenorio: "Despite the rush in demand for product, the market is also hampered by specialized labor shortages, component bottlenecks in hot-section manufacturing, and ongoing trade-related cost pressures"
• Hot-section component manufacturing — particularly single-crystal blade production — is the critical bottleneck, performed at scale by only a handful of global suppliers

6.

The 195% figure is a forecast, not a fact — and the demand driver is a forecast too

• The $600/kW price is anticipated by end-2027, not observed today; the 96% data center consumption increase is a Wood Mackenzie projection, not a confirmed trend — the entire crisis narrative rests on forward-looking estimates from a single consulting firm
• GE Vernova's $160 million investment raises production by 40–60% in a single year; Siemens Energy's $1 billion program and MHI's doubling plan are not yet factored into the 60–70 GW capacity figure — the bottleneck may be temporary, not structural
• If data center demand moderates or manufacturing expansion accelerates, the 110 GW order book could shrink and the 195% price surge could reverse — the market shift from fuel economics to procurement strategy would be a blip, not a paradigm

7.

The real crisis isn't turbine prices — it's that the grid is now betting on a single, unproven demand source

• Both the original argument and the counter-argument debate whether turbine prices will rise or fall; neither notices that the entire gas plant build-out from 2026 to 2030 is being justified by one forecast — Wood Mackenzie's 96% data center consumption increase — from one consulting firm
• The grid has never before committed 63 GW of new capacity to a single customer segment whose growth is projected, not observed; if data center demand decelerates, the US will have overbuilt gas infrastructure at record prices for a load that never materialized
• What's actually at stake isn't whether turbines cost $600/kW or $400/kW — it's whether the US power system has locked itself into a multi-decade bet on AI's electricity appetite, and whether that bet is hedged against anything at all