Excel
Full transcript (Instant)

Excel Never Dies - Not Boring by Packy McCormick

Excel isn't just software; it is the world’s most popular programming language disguised as a grid. While a $500 billion SaaS industry tries to kill it by unbundling its features, Excel remains the "L

notboring.co

Gist

1.

Microsoft Excel, born in 1985, isn't just software—it's the world's most popular programming language, used by 750 million people. Its enduring flexibility and recent Turing-completeness mean it will never die, instead inspiring a new generation of "no-code" tools that will reshape B2B software.

Logic

2.

Excel won the "Spreadsheet Wars" by prioritizing speed and graphical interface

  • Microsoft's "Project Odyssey" focused on a "Recalc or die" philosophy, recalculating only affected cells for instant feedback, unlike competitors
  • The counterintuitive decision to launch exclusively on Apple's Macintosh in 1985 leveraged its graphical interface, making spreadsheets accessible to average users
  • This combination of speed and usability allowed Excel to dominate the market by 1992, a lead it still holds for intensive analytical work

3.

Excel functions as a declarative, reactive, full-stack programming language

  • Users define what they want with formulas (e.g., =IRR), not how to compute it, abstracting away complex steps
  • Its reactive nature instantly updates outputs when inputs change, fostering playful interactivity and rapid skill development
  • A single Excel workbook can act as a self-contained database, backend, and user interface, enabling individuals to build complex models without external help

4.

The Lindy Effect explains Excel's enduring dominance and network effects

  • Excel's 36-year lifespan suggests it will last another 36, a testament to its quality and ability to outcompete rivals like Lotus 1-2-3 and Google Sheets
  • Its ubiquity has created powerful network effects: businesses rely on Excel models, developers build plugins, and new analysts are trained on it
  • This interoperability means an Excel file can be shared globally, reinforcing its lock-in and making it indispensable for serious analytical work

5.

Excel's flexibility comes with significant trade-offs in data integrity and collaboration

  • Its unopinionated nature means users are blamed for errors, unlike specialized software with built-in guardrails
  • Excel lacks data provenance, making it impossible to track changes or reproduce results, a critical flaw for scientific research and data analysis
  • Version control and comparing changes are difficult due to its non-textual format and complex inter-sheet dependencies, hindering collaborative development

6.

LAMBDA functions make Excel Turing-complete, expanding its power exponentially

  • Microsoft's 2021 introduction of LAMBDA allows users to define reusable, recursive functions within Excel's formula language
  • This upgrade means Excel can now perform any computation possible in "true" programming languages like Python or Javascript
  • While increasing power, LAMBDA also amplifies existing limitations around maintainability, versioning, and reproducibility for complex programs

7.

Excel's "unbundling" has driven trillions in B2B software value

  • Entrepreneurs observe common Excel workflows (e.g., sales lead tracking) and build specialized, purpose-built SaaS applications to optimize them
  • Companies like Salesforce ($193B market cap) emerged by replacing Excel-based CRM with dedicated software, proving the market for "unbundled" functions
  • This trend continues to generate new B2B software categories, as Excel's flexibility reveals unmet needs that specialized tools can address more effectively

8.

A new generation of "Inspired by Excel" products prioritizes usability and flexibility

  • No-code/low-code tools like Airtable, Figma, and Bubble emulate Excel's balance of power and accessibility for non-technical users
  • These platforms enable users to build custom solutions (e.g., databases, websites, virtual spaces) in ways their creators couldn't anticipate
  • This approach fosters an unpredictable explosion of new software usage, putting creative power directly into users' hands, much like Excel did

9.

Excel's core design principles offer lessons for future software development

  • Prioritizing flexibility allows products to evolve with user needs, as it's impossible to foresee all use cases upfront
  • Backward compatibility with existing mental models (like the 2D grid) lowers learning curves and accelerates adoption
  • Product architecture that improves with added features, rather than degrading, ensures long-term health and user satisfaction

Counter-Argument

10.

Excel's fundamental limitations make it a relic that should die

  • Its 1 million row limit makes it unusable for modern big data analysis, forcing users to switch to other tools
  • The UI is clunky and unintuitive for basic operations like moving columns, frustrating users and hindering productivity
  • Excel's lack of proper version control and data provenance leads to widespread errors and irreproducible results, making it unsuitable for serious work

Steelman

11.

Excel's "limitations" are precisely why it remains indispensable

  • The 1 million row limit forces users to distill data to its essence, promoting clarity over overwhelming detail, a feature for focused analysis
  • Its "clunky" UI is a feature, not a bug, creating a high barrier to entry that fosters a passionate, highly skilled user base with deep institutional knowledge
  • The lack of formal version control encourages direct, human-centric collaboration and rapid iteration, bypassing the overhead of developer-centric tools for quick problem-solving

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Full transcript (Deep)

Excel Never Dies - Not Boring by Packy McCormick

Excel isn't just software; it is the world’s most popular programming language disguised as a grid. While a $500 billion SaaS industry tries to kill it by unbundling its features, Excel remains the "L

notboring.co

Gist

1.

Excel isn't just software; it is the world’s most popular programming language disguised as a grid. While a $500 billion SaaS industry tries to kill it by unbundling its features, Excel remains the "Lindy" king because it is the only tool that lets 750 million people build their own software without asking permission.

Logic

2.

The world runs on a secret programming language used by 750 million people

  • While Python has 7 million developers, Excel empowers 100x more users to build full-stack applications without writing a line of code
  • It is "reactive" programming: change one input and the entire world updates instantly, providing the rapid feedback loop essential for mastery
  • With the recent addition of LAMBDA, Excel is now Turing complete—meaning anything computable in Python can theoretically be computed in a spreadsheet

3.

The entire B2B software industry is just "The Unbundling of Excel"

  • Every major SaaS unicorn is simply a single Excel tab wrapped in a better UI: Salesforce is the "Leads" tab, Asana is the "Tasks" tab, Tableau is the "Charts" tab
  • Entrepreneurs don't need to invent the future; they just look at what frustrated analysts are hacking together in spreadsheets and build a dedicated tool for it
  • Despite this $500 billion strip-mining of its use cases, Excel’s market share remains dominant because it handles the "long tail" of problems that SaaS ignores

4.

The "Choose-a-Phone" paradox explains why Excel beats specialized tools

  • Most software is like a saxophone (it plays one note well), but Excel is a "choose-a-phone"—a modular synthesizer that lets you compose anything
  • The "Inspired by Excel" generation (Airtable, Notion, Webflow) isn't trying to replace the spreadsheet, but to replicate its core philosophy: combining extreme usability with extreme flexibility
  • Users don't want guardrails; they want the dangerous freedom to build tools the original developers never imagined

Counter-Argument

5.

The Grid is a "maintainability time bomb" that threatens modern business

  • Excel lacks "data provenance"—you can see the result, but the history of how that number was derived or changed is lost the moment you paste it
  • The 2D grid forces hierarchical reality into flat rows, creating a "fragile lattice" where one sorted column can destroy a billion-dollar model without a trace
  • As data complexity scales, the lack of version control turns Excel from a tool of creation into an engine of liability that specialized SaaS eliminates

Steelman

6.

Excel is the "Bonsai Tree" of software—pruning makes it stronger

  • Critics assume that unbundling (Salesforce, Asana) weakens Excel, but they miss the biological reality: specialized tools only prune the "dead wood" of standardized tasks
  • This leaves Excel to focus on its true purpose: the "chaos of creation" where new ideas are tested before they become standardized enough for SaaS
  • Excel will never die because it is the "primordial soup" from which all other software evolves—the permanent frontier between a problem and its solution

Original

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Transcript

Excel Never Dies - Not Boring by Packy McCormick

Excel isn't just software; it is the world’s most popular programming language disguised as a grid. While a $500 billion SaaS industry tries to kill it by unbundling its features, Excel remains the "L

notboring.co

Gist

1.

Excel isn't just software; it is the world’s most popular programming language disguised as a grid. While a $500 billion SaaS industry tries to kill it by unbundling its features, Excel remains the "Lindy" king because it is the only tool that lets 750 million people build their own software without asking permission.

Logic

2.

The world runs on a secret programming language used by 750 million people

  • While Python has 7 million developers, Excel empowers 100x more users to build full-stack applications without writing a line of code
  • It is "reactive" programming: change one input and the entire world updates instantly, providing the rapid feedback loop essential for mastery
  • With the recent addition of LAMBDA, Excel is now Turing complete—meaning anything computable in Python can theoretically be computed in a spreadsheet

3.

The entire B2B software industry is just "The Unbundling of Excel"

  • Every major SaaS unicorn is simply a single Excel tab wrapped in a better UI: Salesforce is the "Leads" tab, Asana is the "Tasks" tab, Tableau is the "Charts" tab
  • Entrepreneurs don't need to invent the future; they just look at what frustrated analysts are hacking together in spreadsheets and build a dedicated tool for it
  • Despite this $500 billion strip-mining of its use cases, Excel’s market share remains dominant because it handles the "long tail" of problems that SaaS ignores

4.

The "Choose-a-Phone" paradox explains why Excel beats specialized tools

  • Most software is like a saxophone (it plays one note well), but Excel is a "choose-a-phone"—a modular synthesizer that lets you compose anything
  • The "Inspired by Excel" generation (Airtable, Notion, Webflow) isn't trying to replace the spreadsheet, but to replicate its core philosophy: combining extreme usability with extreme flexibility
  • Users don't want guardrails; they want the dangerous freedom to build tools the original developers never imagined

Counter-Argument

5.

The Grid is a "maintainability time bomb" that threatens modern business

  • Excel lacks "data provenance"—you can see the result, but the history of how that number was derived or changed is lost the moment you paste it
  • The 2D grid forces hierarchical reality into flat rows, creating a "fragile lattice" where one sorted column can destroy a billion-dollar model without a trace
  • As data complexity scales, the lack of version control turns Excel from a tool of creation into an engine of liability that specialized SaaS eliminates

Steelman

6.

Excel is the "Bonsai Tree" of software—pruning makes it stronger

  • Critics assume that unbundling (Salesforce, Asana) weakens Excel, but they miss the biological reality: specialized tools only prune the "dead wood" of standardized tasks
  • This leaves Excel to focus on its true purpose: the "chaos of creation" where new ideas are tested before they become standardized enough for SaaS
  • Excel will never die because it is the "primordial soup" from which all other software evolves—the permanent frontier between a problem and its solution

Original

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